Base metal price forecasts for purchasing teams
One page per LME base metal: what drives the price, why a single forecast is rarely enough for a buying decision, and how calibrated probabilities work instead. Updated 2 October 2026.
Copper price forecast
Copper is the most-watched base metal and the one most buyers ask about first. Drivers, the limits of a single forecast, and how the odds work.
Read the copper forecast →Aluminum price forecast
Aluminum (aluminium) is energy-intensive to make and sold with regional premiums on top of the LME price. What drives it and how the odds work.
Read the aluminum forecast →Nickel price forecast
Nickel has long quiet periods and sudden large moves. What drives it and why probabilities suit it better than a single prediction.
Read the nickel forecast →Zinc price forecast
Zinc follows galvanizing and construction demand and smelter economics. What drives it and how the odds work.
Read the zinc forecast →Tin price forecast
Tin is a small, thinly traded market where supply disruptions move the price fast. What drives it and how the odds work.
Read the tin forecast →Lead price forecast
Lead is driven by battery demand and recycling, and is largely a by-product on the supply side. What drives it and how the odds work.
Read the lead forecast →How the forecasts work
MetalAlert does not publish a single predicted price. For each metal it estimates the chance that the average price over a future month, one or three months out, runs at least 2%, 5% or 10% above or below this month's average. Each probability is calibrated and tested walk-forward on data the model never saw, and you can set an alert for when one reaches a level you choose.
MetalAlert is decision support, not investment advice. See the disclosures and the post on order timing for how the estimates fit into a buying policy.
Base metal forecasts: common questions
Which metals does MetalAlert cover?
Every LME base metal: copper, aluminum (aluminium), zinc, nickel, lead and tin, using their daily LME cash settlement prices. Ferrous and precious metals are planned, not available yet.
Is this a price forecast?
Not in the sense of a single predicted price. For each metal, MetalAlert estimates the probability that the average price over a future month runs at least 2%, 5% or 10% above or below this month's average, over 1 and 3 months. That is twelve calibrated probabilities per metal.
How accurate are the base metal forecasts?
The probabilities are calibrated and validated walk-forward against outcomes the models never trained on. Each metal's track record, scored on Brier skill and Matthews correlation, is shown on its own page in the app, and a public research log records every model change tested, including the ones that failed.
Where does the data come from?
Daily LME cash settlement prices from institutional market data, together with SHFE, LME and COMEX futures curves, energy prices, currency strength, industrial activity, volatility regimes and credit conditions.
See the odds for the metals you buy
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