±2–10%
Monthly swings of 2% to 10% are ordinary in base-metal prices. Each one moves your landed cost the day it lands.
Commodity price intelligence for the metals you buy
Know the probability of a metal price move before you buy.
MetalAlert gives the strategic purchaser calibrated probabilities of price moves in every LME base metal, one and three months ahead. Time your buys, defend your margin, and walk into every negotiation with a number you can defend.
- Every LME base metal
- Daily settlement data
- Calibrated & walk-forward tested
- 1- & 3-month horizons
Example
0%
chance the 3-month average runs ≥5% higher
| Move | Horizon | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ▲ +2% | 1 month | 41% |
| ▲ +5% | 3 months | 34% |
| ▼ −5% | 3 months | 12% |
● Alerts at 30%, or on a 10-pt jump
Updated daily after LME settlement
Built for category and commodity managers, strategic sourcing, procurement and supply-chain leads, and treasury teams carrying metal exposure.
Tested on outcomes the model never saw.
Every change published, failures included.
- Walk-forward validated
- Refreshed every trading day
- Public research log
The cost of being caught off guard
A 10% metal price move is a line item you'll be explaining for two quarters.
Metal prices don't wait for the next planning cycle. When a swing lands before you've covered volume, it shows up as margin, as budget variance, and as a conversation with finance.
Weeks
The forward-buy window opens and closes fast. Reacting after the price prints means you've already paid for it.
How buyers use it
Use the probability to decide when to buy and when to wait.
Time a forward buy
Lock in volume when the odds of a rise are high, instead of covering after the market has repriced. You choose the probability that triggers the decision.
Plan contracts and hedges
Compare 1 and 3 month odds across every metal you buy, side by side, before renewals and hedge decisions.
Get an alert, not another dashboard
Set a threshold per metal, horizon and size. We email you when the probability crosses it, or jumps versus yesterday, last week or last month.
Real-world result
A steel wholesaler's predictive model paid back 13% of its cost, on one decision.
A results-first look at Andrea Krogdal's GAIA talk: the proof-of-concept results, the checkpoints that proved the model held up on live data, and the single timing decision that paid back 13% of the project cost.
Read the write-up
How it works
From market data to an alert.
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01
Institutional market data
Daily LME prices, futures and macro data.
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02
Calibrated ML models
Odds of a 2%, 5% or 10% move, 1 and 3 months.
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03
Alerts on your terms
Email alerts with top drivers. Or use the API.
What one signal is worth
One well-timed forward buy can pay for a year of the subscription.
Rather than invent a case study, put your own numbers in. This is arithmetic on your spend, not a claim about what the market is going to do.
Book a walkthroughVolume coveredUSD 461,538
Cost avoided on that volumeUSD 32,308
Your inputs, worked through as arithmetic. This is not a forecast: MetalAlert does not promise any particular price move or saving, and a probability is never a guarantee.
Methodology & guardrails
Calibrated, validated, and honest about its limits.
Licensed exchange data, not scraped
Daily LME cash settlement prices arrive through a licensed institutional market-data feed, alongside SHFE, LME and COMEX futures curves and a broad set of macro and cross-market indicators. The full source list is on the methodology page.
The average, not the extreme
Each probability compares the future month's average price to this month's average, matching what you will actually pay around that date.
Calibrated, not just ranked
Every model is walk-forward validated against outcomes it never trained on, and the per-metal record is in the app.
Honest about the tail
The rare ≥10% moves get a dedicated model rather than being extrapolated from calmer data; and where history is too thin, MetalAlert shows "insufficient history" instead of a false number.
A living model
Prices refresh daily and models are retrained regularly, so predictions track current market conditions rather than a monthly snapshot.
Not investment advice
MetalAlert's probabilities are decision support for purchasing teams, not financial advice and not a guarantee. Use them alongside your own judgment and hedging strategy.
Pricing
One subscription. Every base metal.
All LME base metals, every horizon and magnitude, both alert types, unlimited emails, for one flat monthly price. Sign-up isn't open yet: book a walkthrough to see it now.
MetalAlert subscription
- All LME base metals: 12 probabilities each
- 1- and 3-month forward horizons
- Unlimited email alerts: threshold and probability-change
- The drivers behind every probability: what pushes it up, what holds it down
- API & Excel access for your own systems (Organization plan)
- Calibration & backtest track record in-app
- Public research log of every model change tested
- Price history, monthly-change and model-accuracy charts
Ferrous and precious metals are planned, not included today.
Sign-up isn't open yet. Book a 20-minute walkthrough and we'll show you the platform directly, and you'll be first in line for the 14-day free trial once sign-up goes live.
Book a walkthrough Join as a beta tester
FAQ
Questions the strategic purchaser usually asks first.
Which metals are covered?
Every LME base metal is included in the subscription, using their daily LME cash settlement prices. Ferrous and precious metals are planned, not available yet. Each metal has its own page with the LME monthly average and the odds of a move: copper price forecast, aluminium (aluminum) price forecast, nickel, zinc, tin and lead.
What does a probability actually mean?
It's the estimated chance that the average price over the stated future month runs at least 2%, 5%, or 10% above or below this month's average. Not a one-day spike, but what you'd realistically be paying around that date.
Where does the data come from?
Institutional daily LME settlement data, plus SHFE, LME and COMEX futures curves, energy prices, currency strength, industrial activity, volatility regimes, and credit conditions. Full detail is on the in-app methodology page.
How accurate are the probabilities?
They're calibrated (a "30%" has, out of sample, occurred close to 30% of the time) and walk-forward validated against outcomes the models never trained on. Each metal's track record, scored on Brier skill and Matthews correlation, is shown on its page. Every model change we test is logged, including the ones that didn't work; that research log becomes public once the app is live.
How do alerts work?
Set a rule per metal, direction, magnitude, and horizon, then choose the trigger: fire when the probability reaches a level you set, or when it changes by a set amount versus the previous day, week, or month. MetalAlert emails you when it happens.
Can I see why a probability changed?
Yes. Every probability comes with its top drivers: the factors pushing it up and the ones holding it down, such as futures curves, energy prices or currency strength. They're in each alert email and one hover away in the app.
Can I get the data through an API?
Yes. On the Organization plan, an administrator creates an API key in the app, and your systems or Excel workbooks read the probabilities and LME price history directly. See how the API and Excel access works.
Is there a free trial?
Not yet: sign-up isn't open. Book a walkthrough and we'll show you the platform directly, and you'll be first in line for the 14-day free trial once sign-up goes live.
Is this investment advice?
No. MetalAlert is decision support for purchasing teams, to be used alongside your own judgment and hedging strategy. It is not financial advice or a guarantee of future price movement.
Bring the probability to your next buying decision.
Sign-up isn't open yet. Book 20 minutes and we'll run it against your spend directly.
14-day free trial, once sign-up opens.
Or just leave your email, and we'll tell you the moment sign-up opens.
Join as a beta tester