How accurate are MetalAlert's forecasts?
MetalAlert gives the probability that a metal's price rises or falls by 2%, 5% or 10% over the next one and three months. Here you can see how the one-month probabilities would have done on past months, metal by metal.
Pick a metal
- Copper price forecast accuracy
- Aluminum price forecast accuracy
- Nickel price forecast accuracy
- Zinc price forecast accuracy
- Tin price forecast accuracy
- Lead price forecast accuracy
Each page has the same interactive chart as the MetalAlert app. Every dot is a past month the model had never seen when it made the call, so you can judge the track record yourself. For how it is done, read the methodology or watch how MetalAlert evaluates its accuracy.
A backtest shows how the model would have done on past months. It is not a guarantee of future results, and MetalAlert provides probability estimates for informational and decision-support purposes only.
See the odds behind your buying decisions
MetalAlert estimates the probability of a 2%, 5% or 10% move in each LME base metal over one and three months, with alerts at the level you choose. Book a short walkthrough and we will show it against your own purchases.